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COVID-19 infections are seasonal, especially in Suriname

Both President Santokhi and Minister Ramadhin claimed during the meeting in parliament on June 3rd, 2021 that the number of COVID-19 infections will start to decline in 6–8 weeks because of the lockdown measures and vaccinations. However, we have already seen that the lockdown measures have no impact whatsoever on countering the number of COVID-19-‘positives’ — which continue to rise despite the increasingly stringent non-working measures.

What will cause a decrease in the number of ‘positives’ is the fact that the big dry season will start around August 15th, 2021. This is very clear based on the data collected so far, which I also recently submitted to the judge on June 1st, 2021 along with my petition for suspending the lockdown measures. The petition can be downloaded at https://www.kareldonk.com/lockdown/ and in it I go into more detail about various issues.

If the number of COVID-19-‘positives’ is plotted against the seasons in Suriname and the average amount of precipitation per month (obtained from the Meteorological Service), we see that the number of ‘positive’ cases has a close correlation with the seasons and the average amount of precipitation per month. The average amount of precipitation per month (in millimeters) is shown in the graph as light gray bars in the background. For clarity, these bars are shown separately in the figure below.

If the number of COVID-19-‘positive’ cases is also placed on top of the seasons and the average amount of precipitation per month, a clear correlation between them can be seen in the figure below.

What can be seen in the graph is that when the rainy season begins (December 1st, 2020 and April 15th, 2021), then shortly thereafter the number of ‘positive’ cases also increases, and when the rainy season ends and the dry season begins (August 15th, 2020 and February 1st, 2021), the number of ‘positive’ cases decreases. In other words, when the average amount of precipitation per month increases then the number of COVID-19-‘positive’ cases increases, and when the average amount of precipitation per month decreases then the number of ‘positive’ cases decreases. There is a relationship between the amount of COVID-19-‘positive’ cases and the amount of average precipitation per month. The more precipitation, the more ‘positive’ cases. For example, in the graph, the number of ‘positive’ cases increases according to the same curve of the average amount precipitation in the background.

Based on this data, it is possible to ‘predict’ when the current so-called “third wave” of COVID-19 will reach its peak and when it will decrease again. This is because the peak will be reached in June 2021 (the month with the most precipitation [highest gray bar]), after which it will decrease from August 2021 towards the big dry season. This ‘prediction’ can be made because the number of ‘positive’ cases simply follows the curve of the average amount of precipitation per month (see green line in the graph below). The full graph can be downloaded in high resolution at https://www.kareldonk.com/lockdown/.

Likewise, we can predict when the “fourth wave” will start, namely, when the small rainy season resumes in December 2021 (assuming people continue testing in the same way).

So all the criminal government’s tales of ‘variants’ and ‘waves’ are in vain. The rise and fall of the number of COVID-19-‘positive’ cases has absolutely nothing to do with that. Among other things, this data also shows that the people are not in control of this trend and therefore should not be blamed for the increase in the number of ‘positive’ cases. So punishing the people with the non-working-and-damaging-measures is not only unjust but also pointless.

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