IDC: Microsoft anti-piracy efforts will backfire
IDC have released their top 10 predictions for “Worldwide System Infrastructure Software” in 2007 yesterday, and it doesn’t look good for Microsoft Windows. The following two predictions are of interest here:
9. Microsoft’s client operating system anti-piracy efforts will backfire. Microsoft’s anti-piracy campaign will drive customers toward Linux.
10. Our expectations remain consistent that Windows Vista in 2007 will not uplift the operating system or PC market spend dramatically, but we are predicting a meaningful shift of adoption favoring premium Windows Vista SKUs.
In a previous post, where I mentioned the high prices for Windows Vista together with the fact that Microsoft is further locking down the OS to prevent piracy, I had already mentioned the possibility of their anti-piracy efforts backfiring on them:
In addition to those high prices, Microsoft have also further locked down Windows Vista and made it more difficult for people to use pirated versions. These two strategies complement eachother. On the one hand you have the high prices, and on the other hand you also force people to have to buy a legal copy. This is, ofcourse, to sell more copies and make even more money.
But this strategy, again if I am correct, is going to massively backfire on Microsoft. There are two options. First, if people are able to reliably crack Windows Vista, even more people will use pirated versions of Vista because the prices are simply too high for them to be able to afford a legal copy. And this means Microsoft is actually going to sell less copies and make less money, although they will be able to keep their marketshare. In the second option, if people aren’t able to reliably crack Windows Vista, those people that were using pirated version of Windows XP are going to have to switch to an alternative OS, like Mac OS X or Linux. In addition, a lot of people using a legal copy of Windows XP might not be able to afford Windows Vista and could also potentially switch to a different OS. So in this second option, not only is Microsoft going to sell less copies of Vista, but they are also going to lose lots of users to other OS’s, and as a result lose marketshare.
With the IDC now essentially saying the same thing, I think Microsoft had better look into this and change their course. In that post I also mentioned the fact that I could not understand why Microsoft is taking such drastic, and quite frankly boneheaded measures, at a time when it seems that more governments and companies around the world are looking at using open source software, and are switching to Linux. If Microsoft is lucky, they might sell less copies of Windows Vista due to even more piracy because of the high prices, but keep much of their market share because of the fact that it seems Windows Vista’s anti-piracy measures can easily be circumvented. If they aren’t, they will lose marketshare to Mac OS X and Linux while also selling less.
Microsoft taking such drastic measures to lock down Windows, and at the same time maintaining the high prices for the OS can only be explained by greed. It’s widely known that their profit margins for Windows and Office are abnormally high already. It’s not like they’re taking a huge hit from all the piracy going on right now.
So again, why are they going down this path when it isn’t really necessary? Is there any other explanation except for greed? Don’t they realize the prices are too high? Just check out this poll on Channel 9:
What do you think of Windows Vista pricing?
Much too high – 36.6%
A bit too high – 45.7%
Quite reasonable – 14.6%
Cheaper than expected – 2.2%
Dirt cheap – 1%
I hope our beloved Steve-O realizes the mistake they are making very soon, otherwise it’s not going to look good for them on the long run. As a developer I am seriously thinking about looking at Linux more and more these days. With Microsoft charging down the path they are on right now, I might have to prepare for the fact that my clients will expect me to develop on Linux in the future because they won’t be able to afford Windows Vista. This is becoming an increasingly more real possibility, and I’m quite sure people who know me will tell you that they would never have dreamed hearing this from me.
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